Climate Change Impact Analysis — Design & Simulation

Abstract — Climate Change Impact Analysis

and uncertainty in climate projections. Concurrently, opportunities are emerging through advanced monitoring, innovative experimental techniques, computational modeling, climate integration, and reliability-based design. By extending classical bearing capacity models, this study integrates USM to more accurately predict geostructure performance. Analytical insights, supported by case studies, demonstrate the influence of rainfall-induced infiltration on slope stability, shallow foundation capacity, and column-supported embankments. Results reveal that suction enhances soil strength but may diminish rapidly during infiltration, heightening failure risk. The study advocates embedding USM into design codes, modeling frameworks, and early-warning systems to move from reactive to proactive resilience. Bridging theory and practice, it provides a pathway for adapting geotechnical systems to climate variability and ensuring long-term infrastructure durability.

Analytical & Numerical Modeling Methodology

Climate change is reshaping the frequency, intensity, and duration of weather events globally. In many regions, particularly those under tropical climates with residual soils, slope failures are increasingly triggered by climate-driven events such as prolonged droughts, extreme rainfall, and rising temperatures, which are no longer isolated anomalies but part of an increasingly volatile climate system ( Vardon, 2015 ; Yasuhara and Bergado, 2022 ; Costa et al., 2023 ; Kandalai et al., 2023 ; Bridges, 2024 ). For example, climate change has significantly altered rainfall patterns, leading to more intense storms occurring less frequently. This shift, coupled with increased atmospheric temperatures and moisture capacity, results in extreme rainfall events that greatly affect slope stability ( Au, 1998 ; Toll et al., 2008 ; Loveridge et al., 2010 ; Rahimi et al., 2011 ; Scaringi and Loche, 2022 ). Specifically, in tropical regions, intense rainfall infiltration reduces matric suction in residual soils, diminishing shear strength and making slopes more prone to failure. In contrast, arid and semi-arid regions face challenges associated with collapsible or dispersive soils, where wetting after prolonged droughts can induce sudden settlement or erosion. These diverse regional contexts highlight the universal applicability of unsaturated soil mechanics while underscoring the need for tailored design and adaptation strategies. These phenomena significantly affect the behavior and performance of geotechnical infrastructures ( Salimi and Al-Ghamdi, 2020 ; Pantoja Porro et al., 2025 ).

Finite Element Results & Code Compliance

Understanding how these regional processes translate into soil-scale mechanisms is crucial. The degree of infiltration and suction loss is strongly influenced by soil properties such as permeability, water retention characteristics, and hydraulic conductivity. These factors control how quickly pore-water pressures fluctuate during wetting and drying cycles. In climates with pronounced dry and wet seasons, this leads to frequent instability in areas composed of unsaturated soils. At the core of this challenge lies the unsaturated zone of the soil, often overlooked in traditional design but critical in modern geotechnical engineering. This vadose zone, located between the ground surface and the water table, comprises partially saturated soils commonly found beneath slopes, embankments, pavements, and shallow foundations. The hydro-mechanical properties of these unsaturated soils make them highly responsive to climate-driven changes in moisture and temperature, posing risks to stability, deformation, and serviceability ( Jardine, 2020 ; Culligan et al., 2019 ; Rouainia et al., 2020 ; Illés and Nagy, 2022 ; Ng et al., 2024 ; Pham et al., 2024 ).

Scope & Practical Applications

• High-rise building and spatial frame analysis under seismic & wind loading
• Finite element continuum modeling in ABAQUS for non-linear material plasticity
• Classical lamination theory (CLT) and failure prediction for composite structures
• Spatial hazard mapping, landslide susceptibility, and catchment terrain analysis in QGIS
• Detailed bar bending schedules (BBS), structural drawings, and calculation booklets